Explainer · Economy

Did 1.22 million homes just get started in September?

Here's what that number actually means.

Updated October 28, 2026 · Numbers as published by each source on the date shown

No. The 1,221,000 figure is a yearly pace, not a monthly count. Census takes September's starts, removes the normal seasonal swing, and multiplies by 12. About 104,000 homes were actually started in September 2026. Builders have started about 1.04 million homes so far this year, and about 1.28 million are under construction.

What the headline number is

The Census Bureau and HUD reported on October 20, 2026 that housing starts in September ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,221,000. Census defines that rate plainly: it is the seasonally adjusted monthly value multiplied by 12. Divide 1,221,000 by 12 and you get about 101,750, the September pace after the seasonal adjustment.

The raw count, before any adjustment, was 103,800 homes started in September. Both numbers are preliminary, and Census will revise them on November 18, 2026.

How many homes are being started right now

Builders started 1,036,500 homes from January to September 2026, about the same as the 1,048,000 in the same months of 2025. Census says that 1.1% gap is too small to call a real change. About 1.28 million homes were under construction at the end of September. Building permits, the step before a start, ran at an annual pace of 1,400,000.

A million-plus homes underway is a lot of building, and it keeps local crews and suppliers busy.

These counts cover privately owned homes. Manufactured (mobile) homes and publicly owned housing are not included.

Why "seasonally adjusted" matters

Builders start more homes in spring and summer. In 2026 the actual monthly count ranged from 97,600 in January to 135,300 in June. Seasonal adjustment removes that normal weather pattern, so one month can be compared fairly with the next.

What counts as a start

A start is the day digging begins for the footings or foundation. Census counts every unit in an apartment building as started on that same day, so one large building can add hundreds of starts at once. That is part of why the number jumps around from month to month.

Why one month says little on its own

September's starts were 5.2% below August's revised 1,288,000, but the margin on that change was plus or minus 11.8%. When the range includes zero, Census says it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease. Census also says it may take six months to see an underlying trend in total starts, and early estimates are revised by 3.8% or less on average.